Voters in swing states are worried about the US economy ahead of the 2024 elections

Voters in swing states are worried about the US economy ahead of the 2024 elections

by Elena Mejia Jenna is right Denise Lu

Democratic President Joe Biden has sought to make his economic agenda, dubbed “pedium economics,” the focus of a potential rematch against former President Donald Trump. The economy is top of mind for many Americans, according to a preliminary Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of voters in battleground states, but Biden faces headwinds in his reelection bid.

The vast majority of voters in seven states likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction. Trump is ahead of Biden in five of those seven states, according to the poll, although his lead in each state is within the margin of error.

Here’s what voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin said about the US economy.

The economy is the most important issue for voters in swing states

More than any other issue, the economy is weighing heavily on voters as they consider how to vote next fall, with the cost of everyday goods and services the primary concern. High-income voters in swing states were more likely to rank the economy as the issue most important to them ahead of the 2024 election.

What issue is most important to you when deciding how to vote in the November 2024 election for President of the United States?

Percentage of those who said:

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

How much, if at all, does the economy matter when deciding who to vote for in the November 2024 election for president of the United States?

Percentage of respondents who said the economy is “very important”

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

When considering the economy, which of the following factors is most important to your vote in the November 2024 election for President of the United States? You can choose up to three.

Most selected issues in each state:

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; And 4 percentage points in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

Voters in swing states favor Trump slightly on economic issues

When considering potential candidates for next year’s election, voters in all seven swing states tend to trust Trump more than Biden on handling economic issues.

Who do you trust most to manage the economy?

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; And 4 percentage points in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

Voters in swing states appear more optimistic about their local economies than national expectations

A very narrow majority of voters in swing states said they were in a better financial position during Trump’s presidency than they are now, as Americans struggle with the gas pump and stubbornly rising electricity and grocery bills.

One silver lining of Biden’s reelection campaign: Voters in swing states appear to have more conviction in the health of their local economies than in the national economy. However, women were more likely to believe that the economy was going in the wrong direction both at the local level and the country overall.

Overall, do you think the economy in each of the following places is headed in the right direction, or is it on the wrong track?

Percentage of those who said:

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

Nearly half of voters in swing states believe the “pedium economy” is hurting the economy

The Biden administration has invested more than $1 trillion across three landmark pieces of legislation – the bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Control Act, and the CHIPs and Science Act. But Biden has had difficulty selling his economic agenda to voters in swing states — especially baby boomers — who tend to say they disapprove of the “pedium economy.”

Read more: What is the “pedium economy”? Explaining President Biden’s economic philosophy

Do you think the Biden administration’s economic policy, also known as “Bidenomics,” is good or bad for the economy, or has no effect on the economy?

Percentage of respondents who said “pedium economics” was bad for the economy

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

Infrastructure investments are very popular. Investments in electric vehicles and semiconductors are not

There may be opportunities for the Biden administration to make gains with voters in swing states. They believe government should play a key role in infrastructure and lowering the cost of necessities like medicine and child care — all of which are hallmarks of Biden’s economic policy. Although voters appear less optimistic about financing the semiconductor and electric vehicle industries, this trend may indicate that voters have a bigger problem with the “pedium economy” label than its substance.

In your view, how big a role should the federal government play in each of the following?

Percentage of respondents who said the federal government should play a major role in:

Note: The poll was conducted among 5,023 registered voters online, from October 5 to October 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states.

Source: Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll

Edited by: Alex Treebo

methodology

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 5,023 registered voters in seven swing states: 804 registered voters in Arizona, 801 in Georgia, 706 in Michigan, 503 in Nevada, 702 in North Carolina, 807 in Pennsylvania, and 700 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from October 5-10, and data collected across the seven swing states were weighted to approximate a targeted sample of swing state registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, and home ownership. , 2020 presidential and state elections. State-level data are weighted to approximate a targeted sample of registered voters in the respective state based on sex, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential voting. The margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; And 4 percentage points in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

    (tags for translation) Bloomberg Graphics 

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