The latest IMF economic forecasts and other economic stories worth reading

The latest IMF economic forecasts and other economic stories worth reading

  • This weekly roundup brings you the latest stories from the world of economics and finance.
  • Most important economic news: Latest IMF news on the global economy; World Bank warning on Asian debt; Argentina raises interest rates to 133%.

1. The International Monetary Fund lowers global economic growth forecasts for 2024

The International Monetary Fund kept its global growth forecast for 2023 unchanged at 3%, but lowered its forecast for 2024 to 2.9% from 3.0%.
However, the Fund cut growth forecasts for China and the eurozone. The euro zone is now expected to grow by 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, down from forecasts earlier this year of 0.9% and 1.5%.
China’s forecasts were lowered to 5.0% and 4.2% respectively, reductions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points.
US economic growth expectations rose by 0.3 percentage points for this year and half a percentage point for next year. It makes the United States the only major economy to beat pre-pandemic expectations.

Prospects are diminishing in the medium term

– Declining growth expectations.

Image: IMF blog

2. The World Bank warns of rising debt in Asia

Growth in Asia may slow due to high debt levels in “seemingly healthy” economies, World Bank chief economist Indermeet Gill warned in an interview with Reuters.
He warned of the slow pace of debt restructuring in the world’s poorest countries, but in addition issued a warning about debt in Asia specifically.
“We have simultaneous problems: too much debt and too little investment,” Gill said. “A lot of government consumption and private consumption is financed through debt. There’s not a lot of investment financed through credit, which is not great.”
He did not warn about the debt crisis, but it is likely to have a negative impact on growth in the region. He did not provide specific examples, but recent research shows that government debt reaches 85% of GDP in an average South Asian country.

3. News in Brief: Stories about the economy from around the world

Annual urban consumer price inflation in Egypt reached a historic high of 38% in September, according to new data from the Egyptian Statistics Authority.
German industrial production fell in August for the fourth month in a row, the Federal Statistics Office reported.
The British economy grew by 0.2% in August compared to July. However, July’s decline was recalculated to be higher than initially thought, falling by 0.6% instead of the initial estimate of 0.5%.
The Canadian economy far exceeded expectations by adding more than 63,000 jobs in September, and wages continued to rise.
The global energy transition could see the coal industry lose 1 million jobs by 2050, the US-based think tank Global Energy Monitor has warned.
The Argentine Central Bank raised the key interest rate to 133%, an increase of 15 percentage points.
India’s retail inflation rate eased in September, falling to 5.02% from 6.83% in August.
An International Monetary Fund official warned this week that as many as eight African countries need to restructure their debt.
Singapore’s GDP rose by 0.7% from July to September compared to the same period last year. A Reuters poll expected growth of 0.4 percent.

4. More on finance and economics on the agenda

Capital flows to help with the climate transition are not enough, especially in emerging economies and developing countries. But blended finance at the national level offers an opportunity to bridge the gap, write the Boston Consulting Group authors of this article.
Can the business currency change? Individual skills, rather than traditional job credentials, can come to the fore in the skills economy, says Abakar Saidov, CEO of Beamery.
Increasing use of paternity leave in Japan could help achieve gender equality. However, challenges remain regarding realizing and utilizing the benefits.

    (Tags for translation)World Economic Forum

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